Calculation:
Given,
The probability that A , B , and C become managers are:
P(A)=103,,P(B)=21,,P(C)=54
The conditional probabilities that the bonus scheme is introduced are:
P(D∣A)=94,,P(D∣B)=92,,P(D∣C)=31
We need to find the probability that B is the manager given that the bonus scheme has been introduced using Bayes' Theorem:
P(B∣D)=P(D)P(D∣B)P(B)
First, calculate the total probability P(D) that the bonus scheme is introduced:
P(D)=P(D∣A)P(A)+P(D∣B)P(B)+P(D∣C)P(C)
Substitute the values:
P(D)=(94×103)+(92×21)+(31×54)
Simplifying:
P(D)=9012+182+154
Find a common denominator (LCD = 90):
P(D)=9012+9010+9024=9046=4523
Now, use Bayes' Theorem to find P(B|D) :
P(B∣D)=P(D)P(D∣B)P(B)=4523(92×21)
Simplifying:
P(B∣D)=4523182=452391=235
The probability that the manager appointed was B , given that the bonus scheme has been introduced, is 5/23.
Hence, the correct answer is Option 1.